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Bitcoin’s Monetary Policy Paradox: Why Rate Cuts Failed to Ignite Rally

Bitcoin’s Monetary Policy Paradox: Why Rate Cuts Failed to Ignite Rally

Published:
2025-11-03 12:04:50
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Despite the Federal Reserve's widely anticipated rate cut, Bitcoin has confounded market expectations by declining 5% below the critical $110,000 threshold. This unexpected stagnation reveals deeper complexities in cryptocurrency market dynamics that extend beyond traditional monetary policy influences. The muted reaction highlights growing skepticism among investors about the immediate translation of conventional economic stimuli into crypto valuation gains. While long-term Bitcoin holders demonstrate remarkable resilience, leveraged traders who entered positions at peak levels now face increasing pressure as the BTC/USDT pair shows persistent weakness from the week's opening. This development underscores the cryptocurrency market's evolving maturity and its decoupling from traditional financial indicators. Market participants are now actively searching for the next catalyst that could break Bitcoin out of its current trading range, with many looking toward technological developments, institutional adoption patterns, and global macroeconomic trends beyond interest rate policies. The current market behavior suggests that cryptocurrency valuations are becoming increasingly driven by sector-specific fundamentals rather than broad monetary policy moves, marking a significant evolution in digital asset market sophistication.

Bitcoin Price Stagnates Despite FOMC Rate Cut, Market Awaits Catalyst

Bitcoin failed to rally following the Federal Reserve's anticipated rate cut, with prices dropping 5% below the $110,000 threshold. The market's muted reaction underscores growing skepticism about monetary policy's immediate impact on crypto valuations.

OG Bitcoin holders remain unfazed, but Leveraged traders who bought the top now face mounting pressure. The BTC/USDT pair shows weakness from this week's open, with technical support at $110,000 becoming critical for near-term price action.

Total crypto market capitalization dipped 2% to $3.8 trillion as Bitcoin dominance holds firm at 59%. This resilience in BTC's market share suggests capital isn't rotating to altcoins despite the broader pullback.

The Fed delivered expected 25-basis-point cuts, lowering rates to 3.75%-4% range. While theoretically bullish for risk assets, the MOVE appears priced into crypto markets that had rallied aggressively in anticipation.

Fed's Hawkish Pivot Dampens Bitcoin Rally as December Rate Cut Odds Vanish

The Federal Reserve delivered a widely anticipated 25 basis point rate cut but dashed hopes for further easing, sending ripples through cryptocurrency markets. Chair Jerome Powell's emphatic rejection of a December cut as "far from a foregone conclusion" triggered an 18% implied probability of a hike, according to CME FedWatch data.

Market expectations underwent a dramatic reversal - from 96% odds favoring another cut to zero probability post-meeting. The shift reflects growing Fed concerns about persistent inflation despite recent labor market softening, creating a stickier liquidity environment for digital assets.

Bitcoin's rally shows signs of fatigue as traders recalibrate for tighter monetary conditions. The altered rate path through 2026 increases crypto's sensitivity to macroeconomic data, potentially amplifying volatility across tokens in coming months.

Gold's Historic 10% Collapse Contrasts With Bitcoin's Resilience

Gold has plunged 10% in six days—a rare event occurring only ten times in 45 years—while Bitcoin demonstrates surprising stability. This divergence reignites debates about Bitcoin's evolving role as a potential safe-haven asset.

The precious metal's drop below $4,000/oz marks a sharp reversal from its October 2025 peak. Historical patterns suggest Gold typically recovers within two months, though past rebounds range from modest gains to 17% surges. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's decoupling from traditional gold correlations signals shifting investor paradigms.

AfD Challenges MiCA with Bold Bitcoin Reserve Proposal

Germany's Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) has launched a direct challenge to the EU's Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) framework. The opposition party submitted a Bundestag motion on October 26 advocating for Bitcoin's recognition as a strategic reserve asset, separate from other cryptocurrencies.

The proposal demands three key protections: continued tax exemptions, guaranteed self-custody rights, and potential inclusion in national reserves. This move mirrors growing European dissent against MiCA's one-size-fits-all approach, following similar French calls for regulatory flexibility.

Bitcoin's decentralized nature forms the Core of AfD's argument for special status. The motion could force Brussels to reconsider cryptocurrency classifications as member states assert national interests over EU-wide regulation.

TeraWulf Pivots from Bitcoin Mining to $9.5B AI Infrastructure Venture

TeraWulf Inc., once a prominent bitcoin mining operator, has announced a strategic shift into artificial intelligence and high-performance computing. The company's joint venture with Fluidstack Ltd. centers on a 168-megawatt data center project in Texas, valued at $9.5 billion in contracted revenue.

The market responded immediately, with TeraWulf's stock surging 20% following the announcement. The infrastructure project—costing $8-$10 million per megawatt—positions the firm to support next-generation AI workloads, including large model training and deployment. TeraWulf maintains 51% control of the venture.

Crypto Market Faces Downturn Following Federal Reserve Rate Cut

The cryptocurrency market plunged sharply after the Federal Reserve's 0.25% rate cut, with Bitcoin leading the decline. The flagship digital asset tumbled to $111,000, erasing gains from its weekly high of $116,500. Market capitalization contracted to $3.76 trillion as traders liquidated positions amid heightened volatility.

Liquidation volumes surged 75% to $557 million while open interest dwindled by $164 million. The Fed's stimulus measure triggered paradoxical sell-offs across digital assets, with altcoins like Aster and Cronos mirroring Bitcoin's downward trajectory. Market participants now weigh the implications of monetary policy shifts on crypto's risk-correlation dynamics.

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